Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
